The Woodward News

Local News

September 26, 2012

Significant increase in rain unlikely

Gary Engel Woodward News

Woodward, Okla. — While the seasons may have changed in Oklahoma, it doesn't appear that the state's precipitation forecast has.

Saturday was the first full day of fall, but weather experts don't think there will be a major increase in precipitation chances over the coming weeks.

Right now, Woodward City/County Emergency Management Director Matt Lehenbauer is most focused on high fire danger, prompted by dry conditions and winds.

"The high fire danger warning will last through Wednesday," Lehenbauer said. "Winds of up to 30 mph and a continuing warm temperatures are expected."

However, he said it appears that fall may be bringing some cooler temperatures soon.

"It should be in the 80s for a couple of weeks," he said. "The good news is that 76 degrees is the average high for October."

Lehenbauer is also predicting a 1 in 4 chance that the area may see a stray shower or two over the next couple of weeks.



RAINFALL LATER THIS WEEK?

Other forecasters said Northwest Oklahoma might receive some notable precipitation as soon as later this week.

Daryl Williams, forecaster with the National Weather Service (NWS) in Norman, and Danielle Dozier, a meteorologist at Channel 5 in Oklahoma City, agree that over Wednesday night through daytime Friday, an inch to 3 inches could fall.  But they noted that the rain probability is only about 30 percent.

Like Lehenbauer, Williams and Dozier also expect to see a gradual cool down soon with temperatures starting to taper off to the more seasonal mid- to upper-80s through Friday.

Overnight lows will hover around the mid-60s, probably for the next several weeks, before heading toward seasonal colder temperatures, the meteorologists said.

"Currently, it looks like high temperatures will settle later into the seasonal low- to mid-80s, with rainfall slightly below normal for the period," Dozier said.

The average Oklahoma rainfall for the last quarter of the year is approximately 16 inches, according to the Mesonet (mesonet.org).



USUALLY DRY IN LAST QUARTER

Williams said that lower rainfall in the fall and winter is not uncommon.

"Our dry conditions tend to occur in the later months of the year," he said.

This year isn't looking to be any different.

"We (at the National Weather Service) don't see any major (rainfall) outbreaks in the forecast for the next few months," Williams said.

He said there could be some short-term relief from those showers later this week, but then, for the next several weeks following, forecasters are not optimistic about significant precipitation arriving.

But Lehenbauer said he remains hopeful that their may be some drought relief "in the next 3 or 4

months."

"There's a chance we'll see precipitation chances tending to increase by mid-December," he said.

And despite all the science that goes into forecasting, weather remains unpredictable.  Especially in Oklahoma.

"Things change quickly in Oklahoma," Dozier said.

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